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The Five Picks
This week's official Pulltab Posse entry.
Jaguars −8.5
JAX 34 – CLE 10
COVER
Ravens −3.5
BAL 41 – IND 23
COVER
Vikings −1.5
MIN 39 – GB 22
COVER
Eagles −4.5
PHI 24 – WAS 22 (won by 2)
NO COVER
Lions −7
DET 31 – NO 30 (won by 1)
NO COVER
Leaderboard
Win % across each player's full card this week, not just the 5 that counted.
Win rate: % of each player's picks that covered, Week 1
Confident Picks
Win rate on picks tagged Confident, versus everything else, this week. The gold line is 50%, break-even.
Confident, Week 1
50.0%
8-8
Everything else, Week 1
62.5%
20-12
Confident win rate by player, Week 1
Confident picks hit 8-8 (50.0%) against 20-12 (62.5%) on everything else. Ryan's 0-for-3 was the worst; Jim's 2-0 was the best, on only two picks.
Favorites vs. Underdogs
What this shows: win rate this week, split by whether the picked team was laying points (favorite) or getting them (underdog), not how often each type got picked.
Win rate when we picked the favorite vs. the underdog
Favorites: 22-12. Underdogs: 6-8 (Broncos +2.5 finished 0-3, dragging this down). Favorites clearly outperformed dogs.
Situational Splits
What this shows: win rate of picks broken out by game situation. Every bar below is "how often we covered," not "how often we picked into this situation."
Win rate: picks on the home team vs. the away team
Away: 14-6 (Broncos, an away pick, went 0-3). Home: 14-12. Two Rams −3.5 (Australia) neutral-site picks not counted in either bar.
Win rate by kickoff time slot
MNF and Thursday International both closed 0-for. Every non-Sunday, non-Wednesday slot ended winless this week.
Win rate: divisional matchups vs. non-divisional
Non-div: 22-9. Div: 6-11. Chiefs/Broncos made an already-bad split worse. One week isn't a trend, but 35.3% vs. 71.0% is a real gap to watch.
Closing Line Value
What this shows: whether the betting market moved toward or away from our number after we were locked in, a read on pick quality that's independent of whether the pick actually won. Covers the official entry's picks plus any individual pick backed by 2+ posse members.
Steelers −3.5 → closed −6.5 (Dan, Jim: individual, not in the official 5)
Falcons ruled out both Tua and Penix Jr. Saturday morning; Cooper Rush started. Market moved 3 full points onto Pittsburgh after the contest line was already fixed.
+3.0 CLV
Eagles −4.5 → closed −6 (official pick)
Market moved 1.5 pts further onto Philly after we locked in
+1.5 CLV
Lions −7 → closed −7 (official pick)
Line never moved all week
DEAD LINE
Broncos +2.5 → closed +2.5 (Dan, Ryan, Jim: individual)
Opened Chiefs -3, sharp money pushed it to -2.5 by kickoff, right back to the contest number
DEAD LINE
Steelers was the week's actual biggest mover, not Eagles, and it was news-driven (a starting QB scratched two days out) rather than pure market drift. Broncos lost badly (31-10) despite a fair number, same story as Lions: bad result, not a bad price.
Individual CLV Leaderboard
What this shows: closing line value from the individual side-bet picks above, on top of the shared official-entry CLV everyone gets equally. Partial by design, only the picks that got checked this week count.
Chris and Lee had no individual side-bet picks tracked this week. All five share the official entry's CLV equally (Eagles +1.5, Lions dead line).
Vs. The Field
Westgate's Week 1 Weekly Selections sheet: 596 entries, every pick, straight from the source. Our entry's on it as PULL TAB POSSE, picks confirmed exact.
% of the field that agreed with each pick (not a win rate)
Bar color = whether that pick cashed. Our two most contrarian picks (Ravens, Jaguars, under 14% of the field each) both cashed.
The field's 5 favorite teams: how'd the crowd do?
| Team | % of field | Result |
|---|
| Steelers | 46.3% | COVER |
| Vikings | 34.4% | COVER |
| Texans | 31.5% | LOST outright |
| Eagles | 31.2% | No cover |
| Colts | 28.4% | LOST outright |
Nearly half the entire contest had Steelers. But the field's top 5 most-popular teams combined went 2-for-5, worse than our own 3-for-5. Texans and Colts, both top-5 crowd favorites, lost straight up.
This Week's Storylines
The Steelers had the week's sharpest line move, and it wasn't one of our official five
Contest line: Steelers −3.5. By kickoff: −6.5, after Atlanta scratched both its quarterbacks Saturday morning. A 3-point swing is a massive move (bigger than anything in our official 5), and Dan and Jim both had it individually. Good process, wrong picks column.
The Eagles loss was also a good pick
Eagles −4.5 closed at −6 by kickoff. The market moved 1.5 points further onto Philadelphia after we were already locked in. We had the right side at a better number than anyone betting closer to game time got. It just didn't cash. That's a real distinction: a sharp pick that lost is not the same thing as a bad pick.
Division games ate the group alive
35.3% in divisional matchups vs. 71.0% everywhere else. Eagles/Commanders, Cowboys/Giants, and Rams/Niners all bit. Division games are always messier than the number says, and Week 1 proved it hard.
Ryan had a dogshit week
46.2% straight up, and his Confident picks closed 0-for-3: Rams (blown out by 20), Lions (missed by a point), and Broncos (run over 31-10). Hitting the Confident button was actively bad for him this week: 0-for-3 on his tags against 46.2% on the card overall.
Monday Night closed the book on a rough one
Broncos +2.5 lost 31-10, not close, not a backdoor near-miss, just a beatdown. Dan and Jim both drop from their Sunday highs (Dan 55.6% → 50.0%, Jim 83.3% → 71.4%); Ryan's card, already the week's worst, got worse. The fixed contest line was fine (closed exactly where it opened, dead line); this was a bad football result, not a bad number.
We beat the crowd's own favorites
The field's top 5 most-picked teams (led by Steelers at 46% of all 596 entries) went a combined 2-for-5. Our entry, picking from the same board, went 3-for-5, and our two least-popular picks, Ravens and Jaguars, were also our cleanest covers.
The Confident tag didn't earn its keep
Group-wide, Confident picks hit 50.0% (8-8), worse than the 62.5% (20-12) on everything else. Lions −7, tagged Confident by three different people, cost all three on a 1-point margin.
Jim: shortest card, cleanest hit rate
7 picks, 71.4% (5-2), perfect 2-for-2 on Confident. Small sample so far, but it's a start worth tracking.
Ryan: the group's designated contrarian
Filled out 13 of 16 games and faded the group consensus in 6 of them, going 1-3 on those fades, consistent with the rest of his week, honestly. The one hit (Commanders +4.5 while the other four had Eagles −4.5) was the single best read of the week by anyone, so credit where it's due.
Two backdoor covers bailed out the dog-takers
Patriots +3.5 (lost by 3) and Commanders +4.5 (lost by 2) both covered late. Without them, "take the points" looks a lot worse than 42.9% this week.
Where does Pulltab Posse actually rank?
Westgate publishes its overall standings document each week; Week 1's rank wasn't captured when this report went up. Real rank and sub-contest position are on the latest weekly report from Week 3 onward.