Week 2 only. Resets and rebuilds fresh every week.
The Five Picks
This week's official Pulltab Posse entry.
Packers −3.5
GB 20 – NYJ 17, OT (won by 3)
NO COVER
Vikings +5.5
MIN 9 – CHI 3
COVER
Panthers −2.5
CAR 34 – ATL 3
COVER
Eagles −7
PHI 24 – TEN 20 (won by 4)
NO COVER
49ers −13.5
SF 35 – MIA 13
COVER
Leaderboard
Win % across each player's full card this week, not just the 5 that counted.
Win rate: % of each player's picks that covered, Week 2
Confident Picks
Win rate on picks tagged Confident, versus everything else, this week. The gold line is 50%, break-even.
Confident, Week 2
37.5%
9-15
Everything else, Week 2
56.5%
13-10
Confident win rate by player, Week 2
Confident picks hit 9-15 (37.5%) against 13-10 (56.5%) on everything else. Chris tagged 7 and hit 2; nobody's tag beat their overall week.
Favorites vs. Underdogs
What this shows: win rate this week, split by whether the picked team was laying points (favorite) or getting them (underdog), not how often each type got picked.
Win rate when we picked the favorite vs. the underdog
Dogs: 9-9 (50.0%). Favorites: 13-16 (44.8%). Dogs edged favorites after Week 1, when favorites crushed it, but neither side was good. Corrected: this originally showed 61.1% / 41.4% from pre-fix grading.
Situational Splits
What this shows: win rate of picks broken out by game situation. Every bar below is "how often we covered," not "how often we picked into this situation."
Win rate: picks on the home team vs. the away team
Home: 9-9 (50.0%). Away: 13-16 (44.8%). Close to even. Corrected: this originally showed away 53.3% / home 41.2%, from reversed home/away labels on several games.
Win rate by kickoff time slot
Sunday late window: 10-4 (71.4%), the best slot. Sunday early window: 9-16 (36.0%), the worst. SNF split 2-2. Monday Night was 1-3 (25%, three separate Giants +7 fades all lost outright to Rams 28-6). No one had a pick in Thursday's Lions-Bills game. Corrected: the early and late numbers were originally swapped (62.5% / 33.3%).
Win rate: divisional matchups vs. non-divisional
Div: 11-3 (78.6%). Non-div: 11-22 (33.3%). The exact opposite of Week 1, when division games (35.3%) were the problem. Small sample, but two straight weeks of a coin flipping hard in opposite directions is a reminder that neither split means much yet.
Closing Line Value
Not tracked for Week 2 yet. Pulling the full closing-line card after the fact takes more digging than a same-week grade allows; this section returns once that source is nailed down. The Week 1 CLV breakdown is still up on the
Week 1 report.
Vs. The Field
Westgate's Week 2 Weekly Selections sheet: 595 entries, every pick, straight from the source. Our entry's on it as PULL TAB POSSE, picks confirmed exact.
% of the field that agreed with each pick (not a win rate)
Bar color = whether that pick cashed. 49ers were our most contrarian pick (14.3% of the field) and it cashed easily. Packers was our most popular pick at 17.1% and it's the one that missed by half a point.
The field's 5 favorite teams: how'd the crowd do?
| Team | % of field | Result |
|---|
| Texans | 28.4% | No cover |
| Broncos | 27.9% | COVER |
| Vikings | 25.9% | COVER |
| Eagles | 24.7% | No cover |
| Colts | 24.0% | COVER |
The field's top 5 most-popular teams went 3-for-5 (60%), the same rate as our own official entry. No edge either direction this week; the crowd and the posse landed in the same place.
Where we actually rank
With Monday's Rams-Giants game final (Rams 28, Giants 6, a comfortable cover of −7), our 3-2 lands us tied for 141st of 595 entries, top ~24% of the field, two weeks in. 175 entries are tied with us at 3-2. Westgate's real structure pays only the top 20 places, so we're not cashing yet, but we're not buried either. Corrected: this originally said the top 100. Moderate-high confidence: this comes from an automated parse of the official Weekly Selections PDF, cross-checked to zero mismatches against the document's own summary counts, but it's a single-source extraction, not hand-verified line by line.
This Week's Storylines
Monday Night was a bloodbath, and it was avoidable
Three of five posse members (Ryan, Chris, Jim) independently faded the Rams and took Giants +7. All three lost outright, Rams 28-6. Dan, alone, took Rams -7 and cashed easily. That's a 3-1 split on the same exact spot, and the disagreement was the story: three people saw a live dog worth points, one saw a bad team that was about to get run off the field. Dan was right.
The Confident tag was actively harmful, group-wide
Every player's Confident picks underperformed their overall week (Lee was flat, everyone else was worse, some by 20-30 points). Group Confident record: 9-15 (37.5%), against a 13-10 (56.5%) baseline for everything else. Two straight weeks the tag hasn't paid off; worth a hard look at how it's actually being used before Week 3.
Underdogs edged favorites, barely
50.0% on dogs (9-9) vs. 44.8% on favorites (13-16), after Week 1's 64.7%/42.9% favorites-over-dogs split. Two weeks, two different conclusions; neither one is a real signal yet, which is why this gets tracked over a full season. Corrected from the original 61.1% / 41.4%.
Division games were automatic, for once
11-3 (78.6%) in divisional matchups this week, the mirror image of Week 1's 35.3% division disaster. Panthers, Vikings, Raiders, Cowboys, and Seahawks picks all cashed inside their own divisions.
Dan's week was solid, not spectacular
4-4 (50.0%). The Rams -7 call, the lone dissent against three teammates on Giants, was still the single best individual pick of the week — it just wasn't part of a 5-3 card like originally posted here. A grading re-check turned up an error in his Eagles/Jaguars/Chiefs/Steelers legs; corrected, his season line is an even 50.0% (9-9), not the 55.6% first posted.
Ryan's still Ryan, but not quite as bad as first posted
5-5 (50.0%) this week, not the 4-6 (40.0%) originally graded here — a re-check found one of his legs had been marked a loss that actually covered. Season mark corrects to 11-12 (47.8%), still next-to-last, not the 43.5% first posted.
Jim's the season leader, and that part was right all along
A modest 4-4 week (50.0%) pushes Jim's cumulative mark to 9-6 (60.0%), taking first on the strength of his 71.4% Week 1. Chris's corrected week (6-8, 42.9%, not the 7-7 originally posted) actually drops him to 13-11 (54.2%) for the season instead of extending his lead — Jim's edge at the top is bigger than this page first showed.
Eagles are must-fade against the group's number so far
0-for-5 this week on Eagles −7 across every posse member who touched it (Lee, Ryan, Chris, Dan, Jim all had it), and Eagles were also a losing pick in Week 1. Philly's covering games straight up, just never by enough.
The crowd was right there with us
The field's 5 most-picked teams went 3-for-5 (60%), identical to our own official entry's 60%. No edge gained or lost against the consensus this week, a wash after Week 1's group outperformance.