Week 3 only. Resets and rebuilds fresh every week.
The Five Picks
This week's official Pulltab Posse entry.
Seahawks −7
WAS 33 – SEA 31 (lost outright)
NO COVER
Lions −6.5
DET 31 – NYJ 24 (won by 7)
COVER
Vikings −1.5
MIN 23 – TB 16
COVER
49ers −8.5
SF 36 – ARI 30 (won by 6)
NO COVER
Leaderboard
Win % across each player's full card this week, not just the 5 that counted.
Win rate: % of each player's picks that covered, Week 3
Confident Picks
Win rate on picks tagged Confident, versus everything else, this week. The gold line is 50%, break-even.
Confident, Week 3
35.0%
7-13
Everything else, Week 3
52.5%
21-19
Confident win rate by player, Week 3
Confident picks hit 7-13 (35.0%) against 21-19 (52.5%) on everything else. Three of the posse's Confident tags were on the Eagles -4.5 that lost outright to the Bears.
Favorites vs. Underdogs
What this shows: win rate this week, split by whether the picked team was laying points (favorite) or getting them (underdog), not how often each type got picked.
Win rate when we picked the favorite vs. the underdog
Dogs: 9-5 (64.3%). Favorites: 19-27 (41.3%). Second straight week dogs beat favorites, and by a much wider gap than Week 2's 50.0% vs. 44.8%.
Situational Splits
What this shows: win rate of picks broken out by game situation. Every bar below is "how often we covered," not "how often we picked into this situation."
Win rate: picks on the home team vs. the away team
Home: 22-10 (68.8%). Away: 6-22 (21.4%). The single biggest split of the season — home dogs and home favorites alike cashed all day, while road picks got buried. Week 2 was nearly even (home 50.0%, away 44.8%), so this was a one-week swing, not a trend.
Win rate by kickoff time slot
Sunday early window: 21-17 (55.3%). Sunday afternoon: 4-10 (28.6%), the worst slot of the week. SNF split 2-2 (50%). Monday Night was brutal again at 1-3 (25%) — three separate Eagles −4.5 fades all lost outright to a 27-7 Bears blowout.
Win rate: divisional matchups vs. non-divisional
Div: 4-10 (28.6%). Non-div: 24-22 (52.2%). A hard reversal of Week 2's 78.6% divisional cover rate — two straight weeks the split has flipped sign entirely, which says more about small sample size than about any real division-game edge.
Closing Line Value
Still not tracked for Week 3. Pulling the full closing-line card after the fact takes more digging than a same-week grade allows; this section returns once that source is nailed down. The Week 1 CLV breakdown is still up on the
Week 1 report.
Vs. The Field
Westgate's Week 3 Weekly Selections sheet: 595 entries, every pick, straight from the source. Our entry's on it as PULL TAB POSSE, picks confirmed exact.
% of the field that agreed with each pick (not a win rate)
Bar color = whether that pick cashed. Vikings (12.3% of the field) and 49ers (11.6%) were our two most contrarian picks — one hit, one missed. Seahawks was our most popular pick at 30.9% of the entire field, and it's the one that lost outright.
The field's 5 favorite teams: how'd the crowd do?
| Team | % of field | Result |
|---|
| Saints | 33.9% | No cover |
| Chargers | 32.6% | No cover |
| Seahawks | 30.9% | No cover |
| Jaguars | 27.6% | COVER |
| Buccaneers | 26.7% | No cover |
The field's top 5 most-popular teams went just 1-for-5 (20%), a much worse week than our own 60% official entry. First real edge over the crowd all season.
Where we actually rank
Confirmed straight from Westgate's official Week 3 Standings document: Pull Tab Posse-1 sits tied for 77th of 596 entries at 9-6-0-0, top ~13% of the field, 80 entries tied with us. That's a real jump from Week 2's 141st, and our own grade of the picks sheet called this exact rank before the official doc landed. Westgate's actual prize structure only pays the top 20 places though (confirmed straight from the 2026-27 official rules doc, not the top-100 assumption this page ran with early in the season) — and the real cutoff is a 15-way tie at 11-4 (73.3%) spanning places 13-27, not a clean "20th place" line. So 77th is a good week, not a paying one, and we're 2 games back of that group. Highest confidence, source is Westgate's own official standings document.
This Week's Storylines
Monday Night was a bloodbath again, and it was avoidable again
Three of five posse members (Lee, Chris, Jim) independently took Eagles −4.5, all three tagged it Confident. Bears won outright, 27-7. Dan, alone, took Bears +4.5 and cashed clean. Same exact shape as Week 2's Rams-Giants split: three people on one side, Dan alone on the other, Dan right both times.
Home teams went off, road picks got buried
68.8% on home picks vs. 21.4% on away picks, the widest situational split of the season so far, after a Week 2 where the two were nearly even. Seven of nine home favorites we backed covered; the road card was a disaster across the board.
Dan's week was the best card anyone's put up all season, but it wasn't enough to catch Lee
7-5 (58.3%), and it wasn't empty volume — the Colts +2.5 Confident hit, and the lone-wolf Bears +4.5 fade of the Eagles was the single best individual pick of the week. It pushes his season mark to 53.3% (16-14) and into second place, up from fourth. Correction: this originally said Dan took over first at 56.7% (17-13) — a Week 2 grading error (since fixed) had overstated his record by a win. Lee, whose own numbers were correct all along, is still in first.
Jim's one-week wonder is over
Jim rode a hot Week 1 to the season lead through Week 2 (60.0%). A 3-6 (33.3%) week 3 drops him to 50.0% (12-12), 4th place. His Confident picks are still his saving grace — 5-5 (50.0%) on the season, better than his overall card.
Ryan's third losing week in a row
3-8 (27.3%) drops his season mark to 41.2% (14-20), still dead last by a wide margin but not quite as buried as first posted here (a Week 2 grading fix credited him one more win than originally counted). The button isn't helping either way.
Jaguars: the group's most-hammered team, three weeks running
Dan and Chris have now taken Jaguars in all three weeks of the season — independently of each other, independently of the official entry. Both are 2-1 on it (Week 1 −8.5 win, Week 2 +2.5 loss at Denver, Week 3 −3 win). First real Team Affinity call-out of the year.
The crowd had a worse week than we did
The field's 5 most-picked teams (Saints, Chargers, Seahawks, Jaguars, Buccaneers) went just 1-for-5 (20%), well below our own entry's 60%. First week the posse's official picks clearly beat the field's consensus rather than just matching it.