Each player's full card, not just the five that counted. Week 4 on the left, running season on the right, ranked by season win %.
Player
Week 4
Season
1
Dan▲ 1
5-550.0%
21-1952.5%
2
Jim▲ 2
5-550.0%
17-1750.0%
3
Chris— no move
6-940.0%
26-2749.1%
4
Lee▼ 3
4-1126.7%
20-2445.5%
5
Ryan— no move
6-746.2%
20-2742.6%
Posse combined
26-3741.3%
104-11447.7%
Season records are re-graded from every raw pick against final scores each week, not carried forward from the prior page. A push counts as neither a win nor a loss. Movement arrows compare to the Week 3 ranking.
Cumulative win rate by week
Dan is first for the first time all season. Lee led after Week 3 and fell three spots in one week.
The Official Entry
Pulltab Posse's five Week 4 picks as submitted. Season record on the official entry: 11-9 (55.0%), with a 3-2, 3-2, 3-2, 2-3 week-by-week run.
Bills −6.5
NE 29 – BUF 26 (lost outright)
NO COVER
Rams −3
LAR 24 – PHI 20 (won by 4)
COVER
49ers −2.5
SF 24 – DEN 14
COVER
Lions −3.5
CAR 32 – DET 26 (lost outright)
NO COVER
Saints −2.5
ATL 45 – NO 24 (lost by 21)
NO COVER
Confident Picks
Win rate on picks tagged Confident, versus everything else. The gold line is 50%, break-even.
Confident, season
36.1%
30-53
Week 4: 26.1% (6-17)
Everything else, season
54.8%
74-61
Week 4: 50.0% (20-20)
Confident win rate by player
Bright bar is Week 4, faded bar is the season. Dan and Jim have the fewest tags, so treat their lines as noise.
WEEK 4SEASON50%
Lee
22.2%2-7
36.0%9-16
Dan
50.0%1-1
40.0%4-6
Chris
40.0%2-3
40.0%8-12
Ryan
0.0%0-4
20.0%3-12
Jim
33.3%1-2
46.2%6-7
* Fewer than 10 Confident picks this season. Across the posse the tag has now lost 53 of 83 times; a gap that size would show up by luck less than 1% of the time (p≈0.007), so it looks real. All records on this page are counted directly from the raw pick rows.
Situational Splits
Win rate of every pick the posse made, sliced by game situation. Each pair shows Week 4 against the season so far, so a one-week swing is easy to tell from a real pattern.
WEEK 4SEASON50%
Favorites vs. underdogs
Week 4 was the most lopsided of the year: 46 of our 63 picks laid points, and 13 of those 46 covered. League-wide, favorites covered 4 of 16 games on the contest board.
Underdogsgetting points
76.5%13-4
58.7%37-26
Favoriteslaying points
28.3%13-33
43.2%67-88
Home vs. away
Week 3's 68.8% home rate was a mirage. Home picks went 8-17 this week and the season is back near even.
Home
32.0%8-17
52.5%53-48
Away
45.7%16-19
43.8%49-63
NeutralLondon / Melbourne
66.7%2-1
40.0%2-3
Divisional vs. non-divisional
Week 4's 2-12 is the worst divisional week yet. Bills, Chiefs and Saints all lost inside their own division.
Divisional
14.3%2-12
39.0%23-36
Non-div
49.0%24-25
50.9%81-78
Kickoff window, Week 4
Sunday afternoon was the only slot that paid. Both night games went 0-for-5. Season-long slot tracking is still being built.
Intl London
66.7%2-1
Sun AMearly window
39.4%13-20
Sun PMlate window
64.7%11-6
SNF
0.0%0-5
MNF
0.0%0-5
* Under 10 picks, so don't read anything into it. The Rams and 49ers opened the season in Melbourne (Week 1, 0-2 for us) and the Colts and Commanders played in London this week (2-1). Neutral-site picks are in neither the home nor the away bars. Thursday's Steelers-Browns game had no posse picks (the group skips Thursday).
Vs. The Field
Westgate's Week 4 Weekly Selections sheet. Our entry is on it as PULL TAB POSSE - 1 and matches our five picks exactly. Percentages use 591 entries, counted from the sheet's team totals (2,955 picks, five per entry).
% of the field that agreed with each pick (not a win rate)
Bar color = whether that pick cashed. Rams were our most popular pick and the field's most popular team overall. Lions and Saints were our two most contrarian picks, and both lost.
The field's 5 favorite teams: how'd the crowd do?
Team
% of field
Result
Rams
37.1%
COVER
Texans
29.8%
No cover
Cardinals
29.3%
No cover
49ers
28.3%
COVER
Bills
24.0%
No cover
The crowd's top 5 went 2-for-5 (40%), exactly what our own entry did. No edge either way this week; we just had a worse board than usual, along with everyone else.
Team ATS Watch
Every NFL team's running record against Westgate's fixed contest line through Week 4, regardless of who picked them, split by home and away. Sorted best to worst.
Team
ATS
Home
Away
No team matches that search.
The Raiders are the only perfect team (4-0). The Eagles, Packers and Texans are all 0-4. Neutral-site games (Rams and 49ers in Melbourne, Colts and Commanders in London) count in the ATS column but not in Home or Away. Two Thursday games (Lions-Bills in Week 2, Falcons-Packers in Week 3) were graded from the final score because no posse member picked them and their contest lines were not captured.
Prize Windows & Real Rank
Westgate's real prize structure. Full breakdown on the About page.
Overall season pool, 1st place
42%
of the season prize pool, top-20 paid
In-season bonus pool
$575,000
split across 11 sub-contests
In-season bonus contests: where we stand 2 ACTIVE · 1 FINAL
Contest
Record
Rank
Top 3 pay
3-Week #1 Wks 1-3 · FINAL
9-6
T-77th
$15K / $10K / $5K
3-Week #2 Wks 4-6
2-3
T-316th
$15K / $10K / $5K
6-Week #1 Wks 1-6
11-9
T-136th
$25K / $15K / $10K
9-Week #1 Wks 1-9
11-9
T-136th
$50K / $30K / $20K
3-Week #1 closed with Weeks 1-3: tied 77th, no cash (top 20 paid). 3-Week #2's rank comes straight from Westgate's Week 4-6 in-season standings; 128 entries share our 2-3. The 6-Week and 9-Week windows still include every pick we've made, so their records equal our season record and their rank equals our overall rank. Westgate's Week 4 overall standings weren't posted yet, so that rank is pending rather than estimated. Seven more bonus windows open later in the season.
Where we actually rank
After Week 4 we are tied for 136th at 11-9 out of 596 entries, straight from Westgate's Week 4 standings: 135 entries are ahead of us and 115 share our record. That is the top 23%, down from tied for 77th after Week 3. The leaders are 16-4, and places 11 through 32 are a 22-way tie at 14-6, so the top-20 payout line now sits at 14-6, three games better than we are. The realistic targets are the in-season windows and a big stretch run.
Closing Line Value
Individual closing-line-value plays tracked so far, on top of the official entry's shared CLV. Only Week 1 has been tracked; Weeks 2 through 4 aren't in these numbers because the full-slate closing-line source isn't nailed down. Full breakdown on the Week 1 report.
Dan
+3.0
Jim
+3.0
Ryan
0.0
Chris and Lee have no individual side-bet picks tracked yet.
This Week's Storylines
Both night games, all five of us, 0-for-10
Lions −3.5 on Sunday night lost 32-26 at Carolina. Saints −2.5 on Monday night lost 45-24 to Atlanta, a 21-point beating that missed the number by 23.5. Everyone had both. Six Confident tags rode on those two games, and all six lost. Those two were also two of the official entry's three losses.
Favorites got slaughtered, and we were all over them
73% of our picks (46 of 63) laid points, and they went 13-33. It wasn't us alone: league-wide, favorites covered just 4 of the 16 games on the contest board, so the dogs went 12-4. Our 13-4 on underdogs was the best underdog week of the season, and we barely used it.
Six half-point losses and two half-point wins
Packers −3.5 won by 3, and four of five of us (Lee, Chris, Ryan, Jim) lost by exactly half a point. Seahawks −7.5 won by 7 and cost Lee and Chris the same hook. Dan and Ryan got the one hook that went our way: Chargers +7.5 lost by 7 and covered by half a point.
Division games were a graveyard
2-12 (14.3%). Bills lost outright at home to Patriots (four of us), Chiefs only beat Raiders by 3 (three of us laid 4.5), and Saints lost their division game by 21 (all five). Dan and Chris on Raiders +4.5 were the only two winners. Season divisional record: 23-36 (39.0%).
Dan is in first place for the first time this season
5-5 (50.0%) was enough: he moves to 21-19 (52.5%) while Lee, the old leader, fell to 45.5%. His card had a London Colts −3.5 Confident winner, the Rams, the 49ers, Raiders +4.5 and Chargers +7.5. His lone Ravens −11.5 (won by 6) was one of the misses. Counted straight from the raw picks.
Lee went from first to fourth in one week
4-11 (26.7%) is the worst card any of us has posted all season, and he tagged 9 of his 15 picks Confident (2-7). That drops him from 55.2% to 45.5% (20-24) and out of the lead he held through Week 3.
Jim climbs to second, Chris slips under .500
Jim's 5-5 left him level at 17-17 (50.0%), which was enough to move up from fourth to second. Chris went 6-9 and is under .500 for the first time at 26-27 (49.1%), though he's still third. Ryan's 6-7 (46.2%) was his best week since Week 2, but he's still last at 42.6%.
Lone wolves split their bets
Jim alone on Bears −3.5 cashed (won by 11). Dan alone on Ravens −11.5, Chris alone on Vikings −10.5 and Lee alone on Commanders +3.5 all lost. Three of us took Titans +11.5 against Dan's Ravens and covered by 5.5.
The Rams cover was by one point
Five-for-five on Rams −3, the group's only unanimous winner other than the 49ers. Rams won 24-20 over Philadelphia, a 1-point cover. Philadelphia is a different story: the Eagles are 0-for-12 across our picks this season.
Team Affinity
What this tracks: who keeps picking the same team no matter how it has gone. Players with three or more picks on one team, only the perfect and winless ones. Across the whole posse, Eagles are 0-12, Texans 0-9 and Packers 0-8, while Vikings are 10-1, Jaguars 9-2 and Raiders 7-0.
Player
Team
Picks
Record
Chris
Raiders
4
4-0
Ryan
Jaguars
3
3-0
Jim
Vikings
3
3-0
Lee
Texans
4
0-4
Ryan
Texans
4
0-4
Lee
Eagles
3
0-3
Chris
Eagles
3
0-3
Jim
Eagles
3
0-3
Ryan
Packers
3
0-3
COMING AS THE SEASON BUILDS
Week 5 overall rank, once Westgate posts it (the 6-Week and 9-Week ranks equal the overall rank)
Closing Line Value for Weeks 2 and beyond, once the full-slate closing-card source is locked down
Season-long kickoff-window splits (this week's slot data is the first)
Team heat map: every team picked all year, shaded by cover rate
Weather flags for outdoor games, once it's actually a factor (October onward)
CORRECTIONS TO EARLIER PAGES
Home and away were reversed on several Week 1 to 3 games in the working data (scores listed winner-first, read as home-first). Team scores and every W-L grade were right, but the home/away splits and the team ATS table were affected. Orientation is now taken from sources that mark visitor and home explicitly, and the Week 2 splits are corrected on that page.
The Team ATS table was carried forward from week to week and had drifted (Steelers showed 3-0 and Patriots 1-2 through Week 3; both were 2-1). It was rebuilt from scratch for Weeks 1 to 4.
The Week 2 page said Westgate pays "around the top 100." The real structure pays the top 20.
The Season Stats page is retired. Everything on it lives on this page now.